Polymarket odds explained

Polymarket odds are prices. A share in a Polymarket outcome costs between about one cent and one dollar, and that price is the chance the market gives the outcome: a Yes share at 72 cents means about a 72 percent chance of Yes. A winning share pays one dollar, so the price also tells the payout: at 72 cents a win returns about 1.39 times the stake, and at 10 cents about 10 times.

Updated 2026-10-13

How do you read a Polymarket price?

Reading a Polymarket price takes three rules. First, price equals probability: a share at 72 cents means about a 72 percent chance, a share at 10 cents about a 10 percent chance, and a share at 95 cents a near certainty in the market’s view. Second, Yes and No prices add up to about one dollar, so if Yes trades at 72 cents, No trades at around 28 cents, and buying No at 28 cents is the same bet as selling Yes at 72. Third, payout is one dollar per winning share, so the return on a win is one dollar divided by the price paid: about 1.39 times the stake at 72 cents, 2 times at 50 cents and 10 times at 10 cents. Polymarket shows prices in cents and sometimes as percentages; both mean the same thing.

What moves Polymarket odds?

Trades move Polymarket odds. Every buy and sell goes through Polymarket’s order book, and the last traded price is the odds shown on the market page. News moves prices because traders act on it, which is why a Polymarket chart often reacts minutes before the headlines do. Large orders move prices more than small ones, and because Polymarket positions are public, everyone can see which account moved the market and by how much: the top-holders tab names the biggest positions on each side, and whale trackers post large orders within seconds. The odds on Polymarket are therefore a reading of what traders believe, including what the largest and most visible traders are doing right now.

How do you get the same Polymarket odds without the public record?

The same Polymarket odds are available on OffMarket because OffMarket routes orders to the same Polymarket order book: a share that costs 72 cents on Polymarket costs 72 cents on OffMarket, and a winning share pays the same one dollar. The difference is the public record: on OffMarket, positions are not publicly linked to the trader’s account, so the market’s holder list and the whale trackers have nothing to attach to the trader while the trader deals at exactly these odds.

1. Sign in to OffMarket with Google or connect a crypto wallet.
2. Deposit USDC.
3. Trade the same Polymarket prediction markets at the same odds. Positions are not publicly linked to the account.