Polymarket market
Which party will win the House in 2026? is a Polymarket prediction market. The market currently gives ‘Democratic Party’ 95% and ‘Republican Party’ 6%. Ends Nov 3, 2026 · $39.9M traded.
| Democratic Party | 95% |
|---|---|
| Republican Party | 6% |
| Party A | n/a |
| Party B | n/a |
| Party C | n/a |
| Party D | n/a |
| Party E | n/a |
| Party F | n/a |
| Other | n/a |
Ends Nov 3, 2026 · $39.9M traded
Odds as of 22:08 UTC, Nov 2, 2026.
How to read these odds: a share in an outcome costs its chance in cents and pays one dollar if that outcome happens. ‘Democratic Party’ at 95% means a share costs about 95 cents and returns about 1.06 times the stake on a win. The prices are Polymarket’s and move with every trade on its order book, so they are a live reading of what traders expect.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
On Polymarket, every position on Which party will win the House in 2026? sits on a public profile: anyone can see which account holds what, how much, and since when. On OffMarket you trade the same market, through the same order book, at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
Odds are Polymarket’s and move with its order book. On OffMarket you trade this market at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
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