Polymarket market
France declares state of emergency by...? is a Polymarket prediction market. The market currently gives ‘December 31’ 8%. Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $2.7M traded.
| December 31 | 8% |
|---|
Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $2.7M traded
Odds as of 22:11 UTC, Nov 2, 2026.
How to read these odds: a share in an outcome costs its chance in cents and pays one dollar if that outcome happens. ‘December 31’ at 8% means a share costs about 8 cents and returns about 13.3 times the stake on a win. The prices are Polymarket’s and move with every trade on its order book, so they are a live reading of what traders expect.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence).
Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count.
A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.
A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, every position on France declares state of emergency by...? sits on a public profile: anyone can see which account holds what, how much, and since when. On OffMarket you trade the same market, through the same order book, at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
Odds are Polymarket’s and move with its order book. On OffMarket you trade this market at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
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