Polymarket market
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? is a Polymarket prediction market. The market currently gives ‘October 31’ 99%, ‘November 2’ 96% and ‘November 3’ 88%. Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $33.8M traded.
| October 31 | 99% |
|---|---|
| November 2 | 96% |
| November 3 | 88% |
| November 4 | 86% |
| November 5 | 82% |
| November 6 | 77% |
| November 7 | 75% |
| November 8 | 74% |
| November 15 | 55% |
| November 22 | 46% |
| November 30 | 36% |
| December 31 | 26% |
Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $33.8M traded
Odds as of 22:08 UTC, Nov 2, 2026.
How to read these odds: a share in an outcome costs its chance in cents and pays one dollar if that outcome happens. ‘October 31’ at 99% means a share costs about 99 cents and returns about 1.01 times the stake on a win. The prices are Polymarket’s and move with every trade on its order book, so they are a live reading of what traders expect.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the…
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Odds are Polymarket’s and move with its order book. On OffMarket you trade this market at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
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