Polymarket market
Fed Decision in December? is a Polymarket prediction market. The market currently gives ‘25 bps increase’ 73%, ‘No change’ 26% and ‘50+ bps increase’ 2%. Ends Dec 9, 2026 · $10.9M traded.
| 25 bps increase | 73% |
|---|---|
| No change | 26% |
| 50+ bps increase | 2% |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0% |
Ends Dec 9, 2026 · $10.9M traded
Odds as of 22:08 UTC, Nov 2, 2026.
How to read these odds: a share in an outcome costs its chance in cents and pays one dollar if that outcome happens. ‘25 bps increase’ at 73% means a share costs about 73 cents and returns about 1.38 times the stake on a win. The prices are Polymarket’s and move with every trade on its order book, so they are a live reading of what traders expect.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
On Polymarket, every position on Fed Decision in December? sits on a public profile: anyone can see which account holds what, how much, and since when. On OffMarket you trade the same market, through the same order book, at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
Odds are Polymarket’s and move with its order book. On OffMarket you trade this market at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
Open Fed Decision in December? on OffMarket
OffMarket is not affiliated with Polymarket. Read the OffMarket privacy policy and terms of service. Support: Telegram.