Polymarket market
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? is a Polymarket prediction market. The market currently gives ‘March 31’ 60%, ‘December 31’ 28% and ‘December 15’ 17%. Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $52.5M traded.
| March 31 | 60% |
|---|---|
| December 31 | 28% |
| December 15 | 17% |
| November 30 | 9% |
| November 15 | 2% |
Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $52.5M traded
Odds as of 23:06 UTC, Nov 12, 2026.
How to read these odds: a share in an outcome costs its chance in cents and pays one dollar if that outcome happens. ‘March 31’ at 60% means a share costs about 60 cents and returns about 1.68 times the stake on a win. The prices are Polymarket’s and move with every trade on its order book, so they are a live reading of what traders expect.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in…
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