Polymarket market
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? is a Polymarket prediction market. The market currently gives ‘Yes’ 8% and ‘No’ 93%. Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $80.1M traded.
| Yes | 8% |
|---|---|
| No | 93% |
Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $80.1M traded
Odds as of 23:06 UTC, Nov 12, 2026.
How to read these odds: a share in an outcome costs its chance in cents and pays one dollar if that outcome happens. ‘Yes’ at 8% means a share costs about 8 cents and returns about 13.3 times the stake on a win. The prices are Polymarket’s and move with every trade on its order book, so they are a live reading of what traders expect.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
On Polymarket, every position on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? sits on a public profile: anyone can see which account holds what, how much, and since when. On OffMarket you trade the same market, through the same order book, at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
Odds are Polymarket’s and move with its order book. On OffMarket you trade this market at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
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