Polymarket market
Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by...? is a Polymarket prediction market. The market currently gives ‘June 30’ 14% and ‘December 31’ 2%. Ends Jun 30, 2027 · $47k traded.
| June 30 | 14% |
|---|---|
| December 31 | 2% |
Ends Jun 30, 2027 · $47k traded
Odds as of 23:00 UTC, Nov 12, 2026.
How to read these odds: a share in an outcome costs its chance in cents and pays one dollar if that outcome happens. ‘June 30’ at 14% means a share costs about 14 cents and returns about 6.9 times the stake on a win. The prices are Polymarket’s and move with every trade on its order book, so they are a live reading of what traders expect.
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://x.com/MarathonFusion/status/2113001073019662481)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if high-rate alchemy is confirmed through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"High-rate alchemy" refers to the experimental production of stable gold-197 from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators) at an average rate of more than 800,000 gold-197 atoms per second. For reference, CERN's ALICE collaboration reported a maximum rate of approximately 89,000 gold nuclei per second in May 2025.
The production rate will be calculated as the total number of gold-197 atoms produced by the irradiation, including gold-197 resulting from the decay of mercury-197 created during the irradiation, divided by the total duration of the neutron irradiation. Confirmations that only establish that some gold was produced from mercury, that establish a lower production rate, that rely on neutrons not generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions, or that are based on simulations or modeling without an experimental demonstration will not qualify.
The qualifying confirmation methods are: (i) Peer-reviewed publication: experimental results demonstrating high-rate alchemy, whether by Marathon Fusion or by other researchers, are published in a reputable peer-reviewed scientific journal. Preprints and other publications that have not completed peer review will not qualify. (ii) Independent verification: a credible scientific institution unaffiliated with Marathon Fusion (e.g., a national laboratory, university research group, or accredited analytical laboratory) publicly confirms, based on its own measurements…
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