Polymarket market
Which company has best AI model end of 2026? is a Polymarket prediction market. The market currently gives ‘Google’ 56%, ‘Anthropic’ 39% and ‘OpenAI’ 5%. Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $3.8M traded.
| 56% | |
| Anthropic | 39% |
| OpenAI | 5% |
| Meta | 1% |
| xAI | 1% |
| Alibaba | 0% |
| DeepSeek | 0% |
| Moonshot | 0% |
| Z.ai | 0% |
| Mistral | 0% |
| Meituan | 0% |
| Microsoft | 0% |
Ends Dec 31, 2026 · $3.8M traded
Odds as of 21:02 UTC, Nov 2, 2026.
How to read these odds: a share in an outcome costs its chance in cents and pays one dollar if that outcome happens. ‘Google’ at 56% means a share costs about 56 cents and returns about 1.80 times the stake on a win. The prices are Polymarket’s and move with every trade on its order book, so they are a live reading of what traders expect.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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Odds are Polymarket’s and move with its order book. On OffMarket you trade this market at the same odds, with positions that are not publicly linked to your account.
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